Market Assessment

Large-scale deployment of renewable energies has so far been concentrated in Europe and in the US, but that is changing. Take wind energy, solar PV and CSP (Concentrated Solar Power), for instance: 44%, 35% and 23%, respectively, of new capacity for the next 5 years will be deployed in emerging markets (Exhibit 1). For North American and European companies that have so far focused on domestic markets, emerging markets can thus represent an opportunity for additional revenue, but also a risk for increased costs and diluted market focus. In this article we explore six suggestions to develop and implement a sensible market entry strategy for emerging markets.

Little doubt remains about the correlation between improved sustainability practices and better financial results: Exhibit 1 compiles the results of close to 160 research papers, most of which found a positive correlation between these two benefits. But which one is the trigger? In other words, do better sustainability practices lead to improved financial results, or does the availability of funds lead to increased investments in sustainability? In this article we explore the issue of causality between sustainability and financial performance, and what it means for various stakeholders.

Renewable energy has evolved considerably over the last couple of years. So much, in fact, that solutions recently deemed to be unfeasible might now warrant a second look. Take mobile telecom operators, for instance: diesel generators are usually preferred over renewable energy based solutions for remote off-grid base stations, because they are cheaper and more reliable. In this article we explore three recent developments that might tilt the balance in favor of telecom towers powered by renewable energy.

2012 has been a great year for us. Not because we have grown considerably: X&Y Partners is and will continue to be a small company. And not because there were significant advances in the areas we work on: renewable energies and clean technologies continue along a fast but somewhat rocky path; policies to address climate change are still timid; and the bulk of the work towards a more sustainable development still lies ahead us. 2012 was a great year for us because we took a decisive step towards sharing our knowledge.

We are often asked to make market forecasts, so we decided to go back to some of our older forecasts and see how well we fared. We found that most forecasts had a fair 15-20% deviation from the actual figures (Exhibit 1). There were however outliers: on the one hand, we overestimated the global installed capacity of wave energy by an order of magnitude, while on the other hand we predicted the evolution of wind energy costs inside a 5% margin. In any case, the real value of forecasting is what you learn in the process, as it forces you to understand and quantify the forces that shape a particular market. In this article we share four lessons learned while making market predictions and forecasts.

The global onshore wind sector is expected to grow 19% per year till 2015. Not as much as it has grown in the past (28% per year from 2006 to 2011) but still very respectful for a sector that is rapidly approaching market maturity (Exhibit 1). One of the key drivers fueling this growth is LCoE (Levelized Cost of Energy) reduction, either by improving efficiency or by decreasing costs. Concrete towers do not contribute to the former, but can contribute to the latter. Read on.

The forecasts for global electric vehicle (eV) sales are undoubtedly ambitious – 2 million vehicles sold by 2020 – which reflects the high hopes that both manufacturers and governments are placing on this technology. So far, actual sales have been somewhat lackluster: in 2011 approximately 44.000 electric vehicles were sold, instead of the expected 66.000 units (Exhibit 1). It is not yet an immense difference, but it does raise some questions about the feasibility of the 2020 goal. In this scenario, should you, as a consumer or someone responsible for a company car fleet, buy an electric car?

There are not a lot of sports where you can buy a product that is better than what the pros use. Amazing as that is, the cycling industry’s biggest revolution is not based on exotic materials and high-tech designs, but rather on a smart marketing move: by placing the bicycle in the center of an open-to-all, inclusive experience, the cycling industry is addressing the generalized trend for active lifestyles better than any other sport.